The fiscal horizon, however, looms largest. Public debt now exceeds 77% of GDP, with negligible growth, just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting structural vulnerabilities: an expansive public sector wage bill, inefficient state-owned enterprises, and sluggish tax revenues.
The dialogue should not be mistaken for a substitute for hard fiscal decisions, but it can serve as a platform for consensus building. Lessons from Jamaica’s 2013 national debt exchange demonstrate that involving government, business, and labour in frank negotiations can yield tangible reform agreements.
SA must confront the hard questions: Are borrowed funds being used productively? Is debt servicing fostering growth or merely sustaining past excesses?
Beyond macroeconomics, the dialogue must grapple with systemic economic constraints. Power outages, crumbling rail infrastructure, and water shortages are not mere technical hiccups but symptoms of governance failure.
In an era of shifting supply chains and intensifying global competition, reliance on commodity exports alone is insufficient. Addressing energy reliability, port modernisation, and aligning education with labour market needs must be priorities.
Failure to act carries dire consequences. A debt crisis could necessitate austerity measures akin to those witnessed in Argentina or Egypt, with severe social repercussions. Political instability might deter the foreign investment critical for recovery. With youth unemployment at a staggering 62%, social unrest becomes an imminent threat.
The dialogue’s success hinges on producing concrete commitments: clear timelines for reducing public sector wages, targets for energy reform, and local government restructuring. Vague promises will not suffice.
The GNU must focus on the investment in infrastructure and put fiscal trajectory on a sustainable path by using state-owned enterprises to generate revenue. And this can be done through the government investing in sectors of the economy that have the highest return on the investment.
This can generate stronger potential economic growth, which in turn leads to revenue growth, such as an increase in the tax base. But it demands leaders willing to confront uncomfortable truths and accept that incremental change may no longer suffice.
The true measure of the national dialogue will be whether it catalyses decisive action or merely prolongs the nation’s paralysis.
SA’s future hinges on whether the opportunity is seized or squandered. The coming months will reveal whether the country’s political class recognises the gravity of the moment – or continues to drift in denial. The choice is theirs, and history’s judgment will be swift.
* Mabasa is the executive manager in the office of the deputy minister for mineral resources and energy, and co-chairperson of the Brics Youth Council